10 Things that won't survive the recession

[Dogfish]

http://www.computerworld.com/action/art ... geNumber=1

[eLvarouza]

I hope all of those are true. If for no other reason than that I can't stand people who still use Yahoo. For God's sake people, it's called GOOGLE!

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eLvarouza, the man of many pet peeves

[Dogfish]

Indeed eLvarouza...

I was surprised by the prediction about Sirius XM though. My family invested in XM when they signed their first contract with GM. Everyone has been out for sometime and did ok. I haven't really followed them since the merger with Sirius and didn't know they were relying so heavily on new accounts. The lack of new car sales will kill their new accounts, and if the economy doesn't pull out of this spin before it crashes and burns then people will start looking for ways to tighten their belts. Satellite radio will be a luxury... and they will lose account renewals.

Traditionally... the alcohol and tobacco industries have actually flourished in recessions and tough economic times.

If you can't deal with the economy... might as well have a drink.

[Mehdi]

Over here people talk about "the crisis" all the time. I don't watch TV, don't have cable, don't read newspaper, so it's only by talking to people and hearing the same word over & over that I realized something was going on, probably media pushing that word. Personally things are going great, you don't hear me about complaining. Like gas is now 0,77€/liter, last time it was so low was like 3 years ago? We were paying 1.1€/liter couple of months back.

But anyway, found this the other day:

"While many are wringing their hands, I recall the 1970s when we were suffering from an oil shock causing long lines at gas stations, rationing, and 55 MPH speed limits on Federal highways, a recession, very little venture capital ($50 million per year into VC firms), and, what President Jimmy Carter (wearing a sweater while addressing the Nation on TV because he had turned down the heat in the White House) called a "malaise". It was during those times that two kids without any real college education, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, started companies that did pretty well. Opportunities abound in bad times as well as good times. In fact, the opportunities are often greater when the conventional wisdom is that everything is going into the toilet.

Well…we're nearing the end of another great year, and, despite what we read about the outlook for 2009, we can look forward to a New Year filled with opportunities as well as stimulating challenges." -Author unknown

[AD69]

Mehdi,

If only more people were like you and didn't watch TV. The media have been pushing the downturn story to such an extent that it has become a self-fulfilled prophecy.

The news companies need to take a long hard look at their role in perpetuating the economic downturn, all in the effort to have a story to sell.

Its not just people like News Corporation or FOX who have papers/advertising to sell, the supposedly independent BBC is just as bad.

As you said, things are far from as bad as the oil crises in the 70s, but people are easily led with those with their own agenda.

[Mehdi]

Mehdi,

If only more people were like you and didn't watch TV. The media have been pushing the downturn story to such an extent that it has become a self-fulfilled prophecy.

The news companies need to take a long hard look at their role in perpetuating the economic downturn, all in the effort to have a story to sell.

Its not just people like News Corporation or FOX who have papers/advertising to sell, the supposedly independent BBC is just as bad.

As you said, things are far from as bad as the oil crises in the 70s, but people are easily led with those with their own agenda.

exactly. Like I said, gas is really chap right now. Also the dollar is rising, I earn them in dollar, and 1 dollar being worth 0,60€ a few months ago vs. 0,75€ (even 0,80€ a couple of weeks back) that's a big difference. And there's a lot more, like I heard a couple of weeks back that ski travelling had increased by 2% vs last year. How come if there's a recession?

Lots of people are controlled by money. They do shit jobs to buy stuff they don't need to impress people they don't like. They think money brings happiness, I say it brings unhappiness. Like Puff Daddy said "more money, more problems". So they cling to money and now there's a "recession"/"crisis" and everybody is scared as shit.

Napoleon Hill's law of success has a lot about poverty. According to him poverty is one of the best things that can happen to you. I never experienced it, but when I quit my job I went from an above average income to a very low income and I had to do the best from it. Teaches you to be frugal for a start and teaches you that you won't die if you earn less money.

[AD69]

Mehdi, I 100% agree. Its actually funny that one of the reasons for the recession is that consumer confidence is low - i.e. people have realised that buying for the sake of buying is not the best approach, so are keeping their money in their pockets. The retailers how have been getting fat of ever increasing consumer spending are now panicking because sales growth is not linear (they like linear progression too!).

My wife and I have set up our own business, and while I still work, she left a very well paid job and we are now living on one salary while the business grows. We have had to prioritise spending, but it can be done, especially if you cut out the rubbish you don't need (i've had the same ipod and laptop for about 5 years, my friends seem to get new ones annually).

We are now doing well as my salary has gone up (even though I work in banking) and our mortgage rates have come right down. We can now afford to treat ourselves, but don't think we will revert back to the consumer lifestyle.

It all depends on your viewpoint!

[Jerzi78]

The Dollar is rising because the investors who have any money left are investing in long-term US treasury bonds, it's the only safe bet right now. Oil prices are at an all time low because the demand has greatly decreased and the speculation is that it will continue to stay this way for awhile.

It will get a lot worse when people need to pay on that 5/1 arm that a lot of creditors pushed on buyers and they can't even refinance because the value of their home decreased by 30%. The US is screwed unless they can come up with a good plan.

[Mehdi]

The Dollar is rising because the investors who have any money left are investing in long-term US treasury bonds, it's the only safe bet right now. Oil prices are at an all time low because the demand has greatly decreased and the speculation is that it will continue to stay this way for awhile.

It will get a lot worse when people need to pay on that 5/1 arm that a lot of creditors pushed on buyers and they can't even refinance because the value of their home decreased by 30%. The US is screwed unless they can come up with a good plan.

Price of oil is linked to course of dollar, not demand/supply thing which is what they want you to believe. Search for correlation data between dollar course & oil price, plenty of info out there.

[TakeFive]

Global Warming.

My state (California) wanted to spend all kinds of money on various GW programs. Now the state is $42 Billion short of budget and is talking about laying off teachers and letting criminals out of jail early. Suddenly, spending money for carbon offsets or co2 reduction isn't discussed much. Look for GW / Climate Change stories to be largely absent from the media in 2009.

[mackanno]

Greed, that's the name of the game. People tryign to live on MasterCard and Visa.
Insisting on living as if they were rich, spending money they don't have. I cannot understand how people bought houses they knew were way out of their budgets, and then, blamed the banks and lending businesses.
I think this is part of the Capitalist cycle. It is funded on greed (we all are greedy, the degree is what makes us diferent from the next guy), and every once in a while a correction happens, whether we like it or not to. I am in no way socialist, I just think we all buy into the "you deserve it all" speech.
Now if you excuse me, I have to get the new 96' pasma TV and trash the 90' one I bought three months ago because is soo uncool to have now. . .

[sickduck]

Hopefully people will stop spending 9 months pay on new cars. You'd think it'd be hard to convince people to spend so much of their expendable income on transportation. The biggest scam of the 20th century. No wonder the car companies are doing so badly.

[Doo]

Comparison of now versus 1970 is one thing. When you compare to the Great Depression, times now are pretty good. Heck, they say that U.S. Xmas sales were off a "whopping" 4%. Now, I understand that most stores have low profit margins and count on volume but still that seems statistically low. I work for a steel mill and our business if off 50%!

I have gone to see movies and have eaten out at restaurants since the downturn. Yes, it seems that the restaurants aren't as full (except on Fridays ) but most are far from empty. People are still living.

I read that U.S. unemployment is now 7% which I suppose is up several percent from typical average unemployment (mostly comprised of those not actively trying to get a job) so I understand that a small fraction of the population is now not doing so well but the media would make you think otherwise.

I was close to refinancing my house but I still want a little lower rate than currently available. My daughter needed more money for college and we got a loan with no problem. You listen to the media and it seems no one can get a loan. The truth is that people who could not afford to pay back a loan several months ago are now unable to get a new loan because banks have decided (or we helped them decide) it is not a good idea to lend money to people who cannot afford to pay it back.

[TakeFive]

China.

At least in it’s current form.

First, Tao Shoulong burned his company’s financial books. He then sold his private golf club memberships and disposed of his Mercedes S-600 sedan.

And then he was gone.

And just like that, China’s biggest textile dye operation – with four factories, a campus the size of 31 football fields, 4,000 workers and debts of at least $200 million – was history.

http://articles.latimes.com/2008/nov/03 ... i-factory3

Millions of workers were lured into the cities to work in the factories, many of which have abruptly shut down. Not only were these factories a place of employment, many workers lived on site. So they’ve lost their job AND their home.


Check out this photo gallery from wired magazine:

Endless Assembly Lines and Giant Cafeterias; Inside China's Vast Factories

http://www.wired.com/science/planeteart ... nsky_china


Secondly, China’s one child policy has created a population imbalance, with some tens of millions of girls “missing”. I think the ratio is something like 100:123 (female:male).

A large population of unemployed, homeless males that can’t get a date equals the seeds of a revolution. Of course the Chinese government won’t go quietly. Look at how Tiananmen Square worked out. They drove tanks into the square and over the peaceful protesters. Hundreds more gunned down in cold blood.

[Mehdi]

The China thing is interesting. I read/heard this theory somewhere, don't remember where. Think it was a seminar from the guy from "the mating mind". Anyway, it said that all wars start with men fighting for women in one or another way (cfr Troy for example). And that with China's 1 child policy, with a strong preference for males, things are going to get dirty. It said something about males in China already "stealing" women from south or north korea (don't remember) and that those countries were getting angry about them stealing their women.